Vermont

Obama maintains the slimmest of leads, 270-268, an decrease of a 11 EVs from our last forecast. Bottom line, the state polls are still showing McCain's convention bounce, even as the national polls are starting to go Obama's way. We used to abuse our slow moving projections, FHQ, CNN, NBC and Rasmussen - now we love them. It's the sensitive projections, led by our friendly left blogs OpenLeft and 538, that give McCain his best numbers.

Colorado remains our tipping point state.

Map changes: Towards McCain: FL: T-> ML; NC, NC and SD, ML->M

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The state polls rolled in this week,and the results are pretty ugly. Obama leads 281-257, an decrease of a big 13 EVs from our last forecast. Movement across the board for McCain, and 3 projections now show Obama at 269 or less. Colorado is still our tipping point state, but it is now a pure Tossup.

Map changes: Towards McCain: GA, ND: ML->M. NM: OL->T. NJ, WA: O->OL. Towards Obama: WV: M->ML.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

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As we bid goodbye to the conventions, and start the two-month sprint to the finish, Obama leads 294-244, an decrease of 2 EVs from our last forecast. The projections that look directly at the national numbers, Election Projection and 538, had major movement towards McCain. The other projections were more mixed, and we note that NBC did their monthly update.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Unanimous solid states:

Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs.

Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 64 EVs.

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We've gone through the numbers, and there's lots of interesting data to be looked at.

First, top line. Going into the convention, we estimated Obama at 2335 votes, (1842.5 pledged, 492.5 superdelegates), and Clinton at 1973 votes, (1720.5 pledged, 252.5 superdelegates), Edwards at 3, and 108 superdelegates uncommitted.

The results reported by the DNCC: Obama 3188.5 (+894.5), Clinton 1010.5 (-988.5), Not Voting 220 (+94 from superdelegate uncommitted). What this shows us is that at least 94 Clinton delegates abstained from voting, instead of voting for either Clinton or Obama. But it's actually more. Let's look at some key states:

CA: Was Clinton 233, Obama 200, Uncommitted 8. Convention Tally: Clinton 145 (-88) Obama 255 (+55), NV 41. At least 33 (88-55) Clinton delegates decided to abstain.

PA: Was Clinton 101, Obama 81, Uncommitted 5. Convention Tally: Clinton 20 (-81) Obama 137 (+56), NV 30. At least 25 Clinton delegates decided to abstain.

NJ: Was Clinton 71, Obama 55, Uncommitted 1. Convention Tally: Clinton 0 (-71) Obama 106 (+51), NV 21. At least 20 Clinton delegates decided to abstain.

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More from Joe Cryan on Sarah Palin:

"I think we compare the qualifications of both candidates, it's clear that Barack Obama's judgment is clearly better suited for the nation," he said. "I don't even know how many people there are in Alaska."

According to 2007 Census population estimates, some 683,478 people live in Alaska. Only North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming have fewer. Eighty-five counties in 28 states boast larger populations than Alaska, as do sixteen cities. In New Jersey, Middlesex, Essex, and Bergen counties all have more people than the entire state of Alaska. By this measure, Joe DiVincenzo and Dennis McNerney have more substantial "executive experience" than Sarah Palin.

Just 6,311 people called Wasilla, Alaska home in 2002, the last year Sarah Palin was mayor of that town. Some 92% of New Jerseyans live in a town with a population larger than 6,311.

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