2008 Democratic Blog

An outtake from Senator Obama's speech in Elko yesterday.

Take it to heart.

"I need you to go out and talk to your friends and talk to your neighbors. I want you to talk to them whether they are independent or whether they are Republican. I want you to argue with them and get in their face."

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Here are some good polling numbers out recently:

• CBS/NY Times National (9/12-9/16) (9/8 results in parentheses):

Obama 48 (44)
McCain 43 (46

• Quinnipiac National (9/11-9/16):

Obama 49
McCain 45

• Obama's up in Indiana, 47-44.

• Merkley (D) has closed the gap in OR-Senate: (8/7 in parens)
  

Smith 46 (47)
Merkley 45 (39)

And OpenLeft agrees with the DCW Presidential Forecast:

Colorado is the tipping point.

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Obama maintains the slimmest of leads, 270-268, an decrease of a 11 EVs from our last forecast. Bottom line, the state polls are still showing McCain's convention bounce, even as the national polls are starting to go Obama's way. We used to abuse our slow moving projections, FHQ, CNN, NBC and Rasmussen - now we love them. It's the sensitive projections, led by our friendly left blogs OpenLeft and 538, that give McCain his best numbers.

Colorado remains our tipping point state.

Map changes: Towards McCain: FL: T-> ML; NC, NC and SD, ML->M

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Welcome to NewsWatch
Welcome to a new daily segment on DemConWatch. My name is Gabe Stein, and I spend most of my free time reading articles about the election - a lot of articles. I recently started calculating the number, and it's scary: I generally go through 50 to 100 articles per day. Yeah, I'm a total junkie, but in order to put the obsession to good use, I decided to volunteer to contribute to DemConWatch for the next seven weeks.

What you'll see from me is a daily dose of the top campaign stories from each news cycle, culled from hundreds of sources. While I can't promise to never miss a story, I'll try not to miss many, and more importantly, I'll intelligently synthesize the information by working to identify emerging common narratives in the otherwise unconnected mass of material. There's a theory that if you flood your mind with enough information, you're able to step back from the fray and find bigger trends you would have otherwise missed. Let's see if that works.

Of course, I invite you to provide your own analysis and point out anything I may have missed. So without further adieu:

Trends and Tremors

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The beginning of the end of Joe Lieberman as even a pretense of a shadow of a Democrat. And yes, it happened last week, and I missed it. But better late than never.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has decided that Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID-Conn.) — one of Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) top supporters — can no longer attend Democrats’ weekly caucus lunches or the biweekly chairmen’s lunches used to formulate policy, senior Democratic aides said Tuesday.

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"But it sounds like he got a little carried away, because yesterday, John McCain actually said that if he’s President, he’ll take on the – quote – “ol’ boys network” in Washington. I am not making this up. This is someone who’s been in Congress for twenty-six years – who put seven of the most powerful Washington lobbyists in charge of his campaign – and now he tells us that he’s the one who will take on the ol’ boy network. The ol’ boy network? In the McCain campaign, that’s called a staff meeting."

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As part of the Obama campaign’s “Women for the Change We Need Week of Action,” Vice Presidential Nominee Senator Joe Biden and Senator Hillary Clinton got together for a conversation with women on the issues that are most important to them. The conversation, one of the largest women’s web forums in history, will be broadcast to tens of thousands of women across the country.

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This is a great resource from This Week With Barack Obama. They list all of the states' registration and voting info.

A few things, you must be a U.S. citizen, resident of the state you are voting in, at least 18 years old by November 4, 2008, and sign your form. Changing or registering for the first time and mailing in your application, make sure you bring I.D. to the polls.

Voting Absentee for military or citizens living outside of the U.S., information at Vote from Abroad or Long Distance Voter.

Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Wyoming has same day registration and voting.

Most on-line registration, STILL, requires you to download the form, sign and mail it in.

National registration form is here. This form is applicable for all 50 states, remember you must show valid identification for first time voters. In Spanish, here.

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Rasmussen Tracking Poll: McCain 48, Obama 47, (Yesterday: McCain 48, Obama 47)
Hotline: Obama 45, McCain 42. (Yesterday: Obama 46, McCain 42).
Daily Kos: Obama 48, McCain 44. (Yesterday: Obama 48, McCain 44).
Gallup: Obama 47, McCain 45 (Yesterday: McCain 47, Obama 46).

Four poll average: Obama 46.75, McCain 44.75 (Obama 46.75, McCain 45.25).

Here's the overall trend from Pollster.com (9/16):

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The Obama campaign today released a two-minute advertisement in which Senator Obama will speak directly to the nation on his view of the state of the economy and what he would do to fix it if he is elected president. The ad will begin today nationally and in battleground states around the country.


Obama's statement on AIG bailout

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Here a short interview with a DNC delegate, Ohio resident and elected offical who is a former Hillary Clinton supporter at the DNC Convention. Check out what she had to say about Barack Obama and what he needs to do to get Ohio voters. This interview was done on the way to Barack Obama's nomination acceptance speech.

 

 

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We don't usually give advice to the McCain campaign, but if we were John McCain and Sarah Palin, we would be jumping for joy at the latest polls in NJ. Just look how close its getting:

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll of NJ LVs released this a.m. shows Obama and Joe Biden leading John McCain and Sarah Palin 48-45%, down from Obama's 51-41% margin on 8/10. ...

Also out this a.m. is a Monmouth Univ./Gannett New Jersey poll of LVs which shows Obama leading McCain 49-41% -- exactly on the poll's +/- 4.0% margin of error. And while Obama's 8% lead is more than his advantage in the Quinnipiac poll, it is down from his 14% lead in the Monmouth survey completed 7/21. ...

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