Oklahoma

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Obama maintains the slimmest of leads, 270-268, an decrease of a 11 EVs from our last forecast. Bottom line, the state polls are still showing McCain's convention bounce, even as the national polls are starting to go Obama's way. We used to abuse our slow moving projections, FHQ, CNN, NBC and Rasmussen - now we love them. It's the sensitive projections, led by our friendly left blogs OpenLeft and 538, that give McCain his best numbers.

Colorado remains our tipping point state.

Map changes: Towards McCain: FL: T-> ML; NC, NC and SD, ML->M

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The state polls rolled in this week,and the results are pretty ugly. Obama leads 281-257, an decrease of a big 13 EVs from our last forecast. Movement across the board for McCain, and 3 projections now show Obama at 269 or less. Colorado is still our tipping point state, but it is now a pure Tossup.

Map changes: Towards McCain: GA, ND: ML->M. NM: OL->T. NJ, WA: O->OL. Towards Obama: WV: M->ML.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

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Getting a lot of play in the media and Sen. Obama's new TV commerical is the fact that Sarah Palin was for the so-called "Bridge to Nowhere" before she was against it. But, as CQ Politics points out in an article in this week's edition, there is more than one "Bridge to Nowhere," and Palin is still in favor of the second one. 

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As we bid goodbye to the conventions, and start the two-month sprint to the finish, Obama leads 294-244, an decrease of 2 EVs from our last forecast. The projections that look directly at the national numbers, Election Projection and 538, had major movement towards McCain. The other projections were more mixed, and we note that NBC did their monthly update.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Unanimous solid states:

Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs.

Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 64 EVs.

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