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Presidential Forecast - 9/17 - a lagging indicator

Obama maintains the slimmest of leads, 270-268, an decrease of a 11 EVs from our last forecast. Bottom line, the state polls are still showing McCain's convention bounce, even as the national polls are starting to go Obama's way. We used to abuse our slow moving projections, FHQ, CNN, NBC and Rasmussen - now we love them. It's the sensitive projections, led by our friendly left blogs OpenLeft and 538, that give McCain his best numbers.

Colorado remains our tipping point state.

Map changes: Towards McCain: FL: T-> ML; NC, NC and SD, ML->M
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Political Strategies, What If Barack Obama Loses

AfricanAmericanPoliticalPundit's picture

Have you noticed that the Democrats havelet Barack Obama get attacked by the Republicans for two weeks without saying much of anything . The senate President and House Speaker have been pretty quiet. So have the Democratic members of the house and Senate. Black church leaders have been quiet, no one is saying a word. The Clinton's are suppose to be in support of Barack but even they are showing little strong support for Obama. It seems that everyone and their mama are getting cold feet. As an example, Lois Romano and Anne E. Krnblut at The Washington Post have a great article on how Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton on Sunday made a pair of campaign stops in this important battleground for former rival Sen. Barack Obama, generating large, passionate crowds -- and barely mentioning Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

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Educational Resumes of Obama, McCain, Biden & Palin

Istock_000004641886xsmallSuppose you are a hiring manager and had four young candidates to choose from to work in your business.  The job involves managing a diverse group of people, having a basic knowledge of economics, politics, foreign relations, education, law, and government.  You need someone who is a team-player, is decisive, and has a "get the job done" attitude. 

Looking at these four educational resumes*, without knowing their race or their gender, who would you give an interview to? 

Obama:
Occidental College (Los Angeles) - 2 years studying Politics and Public Policy.
Columbia University (New York) - B.A. Political Science with a specialization in International Relations.

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Presidential Forecast - 9/11 - This pig needs some lipstick

The state polls rolled in this week,and the results are pretty ugly. Obama leads 281-257, an decrease of a big 13 EVs from our last forecast. Movement across the board for McCain, and 3 projections now show Obama at 269 or less. Colorado is still our tipping point state, but it is now a pure Tossup.

Map changes: Towards McCain: GA, ND: ML->M. NM: OL->T. NJ, WA: O->OL. Towards Obama: WV: M->ML.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
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