Arkansas

Obama maintains the slimmest of leads, 270-268, an decrease of a 11 EVs from our last forecast. Bottom line, the state polls are still showing McCain's convention bounce, even as the national polls are starting to go Obama's way. We used to abuse our slow moving projections, FHQ, CNN, NBC and Rasmussen - now we love them. It's the sensitive projections, led by our friendly left blogs OpenLeft and 538, that give McCain his best numbers.

Colorado remains our tipping point state.

Map changes: Towards McCain: FL: T-> ML; NC, NC and SD, ML->M

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The state polls rolled in this week,and the results are pretty ugly. Obama leads 281-257, an decrease of a big 13 EVs from our last forecast. Movement across the board for McCain, and 3 projections now show Obama at 269 or less. Colorado is still our tipping point state, but it is now a pure Tossup.

Map changes: Towards McCain: GA, ND: ML->M. NM: OL->T. NJ, WA: O->OL. Towards Obama: WV: M->ML.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

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As we bid goodbye to the conventions, and start the two-month sprint to the finish, Obama leads 294-244, an decrease of 2 EVs from our last forecast. The projections that look directly at the national numbers, Election Projection and 538, had major movement towards McCain. The other projections were more mixed, and we note that NBC did their monthly update.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Unanimous solid states:

Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs.

Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 64 EVs.

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The final state-by-state delegate vote tally for the Democratic presidential nomination can be found here.

The cumulative finish was Senator Obama at 3,188.5 and Senator Clinton at 1010.5.

That leaves 300 delegates unaccounted for, probably stuck on buses or more likely hanging out at the MSNBC booth waiting to see the next Joe Scarborough meltdown.

Update from Matt: We're going through the numbers in detail now, but already found one interesting thing. When Arkansas announced their totals, it was Obama 47, Clinton 0. But the tally sheet shows: Obama 37, Clinton 8. So the announced votes at the convention may not match up with the tally sheets.

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Part One: Yours, Mine...

One of the things I hoped for when Michelle Obama spoke at the Democratic convention, was that she would introduce people to the America that she came from, and that was the setting of her story. One of the biggest shames in the campaign - aside from the fact that political realities required this intelligent, accomplished woman to effectively bite her tongue for the last couple of months - is the lack of any honest discussion about the reality that we don't all live in the same America. It's one reality that both progressives and conservatives must grapple with between now and November, and beyond

Delivered on a night that carried the theme "One America," her speech should serve as a reminder that if we are to be America, we have to first acknowledge that what we have are three America's: yours, mine, and ours.

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